I want to preface this by saying I really didn't want to have to write this post.
For the last couple days, I've been reading "The Lexus and the olive tree" by Thomas Friedman. Yes, the guy who was wrong so frequently they named a unit of measurement after him.
For the lazy, the Friedman Unit is "six months from now. And then six months after that. And then six months after that, forever." In reference to when America would win our war against Terror. Any day now!
I need to take regular breaks from the book, because I've been trying to decide if Friedman is a a really shitty writer, or just plain ol' dumb.
The problem I'm running into is that some of his viewpoints are actually . . . pretty good. Stuff I agree with. Things that seem to make sense. And then he runs right off the rails and starts telling half-baked stories about imagined conversations with nation states or world leaders, and I hate everything to my eyeballs. At the very least, being presented the Easy Reader version of global finance does Not fill me with confidence about the depth of this man's thought on the subject matter.
Since the book is from 1999, a few chapters are morbidly hilarious in retrospect. Like when he spends much ink praising establishments such as Moody's as regards to issuing ratings, and lambasting governments that do not allow such hallowed institutions to deliver Judgement upon their financial products. Because Moody's will Obviously perform their function in a fair and accurate manner in all instances. Capitalism and globalization are the way to infinite prosperity! So to join the global community, you must get their stamp of approval.
Capitalism forever!
One other side effect of globalization is driving down wages for unskilled labor. Stuff that can be outsourced will be . . . well, outsourced. Friedman is OK with this, as he imagines a world where the now unemployed will take the time to train up and learn more advanced skills to get higher paying jobs.
No. This will not happen.
I understand that I'm about to shit right in the the American Dream, but I'm not being paid enough to lie to you people. Right now, I could take a job as a janitor. I have had this job before, and I rather liked it.
If some janitor magically saved enough cash to get a couple years of schooling, there is next to zero chance that they can become a programmer. Sorry, them's the breaks. That janitor, after several years of schooling, is most likely to be, at best, a shitty programmer. Those are the ones who get fired for "not meeting expectations." This isn't just a programming thing, they're likely not going to be a surgeon, engineer, physicist, or anything else. They'll just be chronically unemployed.
If this sounds dickish or arrogant, here's something to make that worse: I get at least a couple job offers a week. I'm not even looking. I am an Average programmer. There are so few people that can do this kind of stuff that I've never in my adult life had to seriously worry about employment. I am extremely grateful for this kind of freedom, but I've also worked enough shitty jobs that I know what it's like to be one paycheck from getting evicted for several years on end. If it Can be outsourced, it Will be.
Hell, call center and IT jobs are just sort of starting to come back to the U.S. and we had it easy. If I was a welder or worked in manufacturing I would be even more pissed about this trend. But I don't think it's going to change.
So, if the jobs are getting shuffled around, everyone's wages are going into the toilet, and re-training isn't a reasonable option for enough people, then what's next?
I'm not sure. Universal income sounds somewhat appealing, but I haven't done my homework there yet. Socialism is still a Very Naughty Word in America, so that's right out. Maybe some good old fashioned rioting in the streets? I could be up for that.
No comments:
Post a Comment